Republican lawmakers, both in-office and out-of-office, are ramping up their travel to Iowa and New Hampshire—crucial states that will help determine who becomes the GOP presidential nominee in 2024. 

Former President Donald Trump will campaign in Iowa on Monday. He made his first campaign stops in New Hampshire and South Carolina back in January.  

Fellow Republicans Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, former Vice President Mike Pence, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy all traveled to Iowa last month.

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley made her second trip to Iowa Friday and campaigned in New Hampshire last month after launching her presidential campaign.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, perhaps Trump’s biggest rival, made his first Iowa pit stop on Friday. 

But why are so many Republicans flocking to Iowa and New Hampshire? Here’s a brief explainer.

Why are Iowa and New Hampshire important?

Since 1972 Iowa has held the crucial first-in-the-nation caucuses. Since 1920, New Hampshire has held the first primary of the presidential campaign season.

The Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary has helped to make or break campaigns by building national excitement and momentum for the winners. Low-ranking losers have generally dropped out of the presidential race following their defeat.

In some years, successful candidates were able to overcome a loss in the two states and capture the presidency. 

Trump lost the Iowa caucuses to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in 2016. President Joe Biden lost in Iowa in 2020, calling it a “gut punch.”

He also lost the New Hampshire primary to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and then he went on to become the Democratic presidential nominee after building momentum from winning the South Carolina primary. 

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The Trump factor

Timothy Hagle, political scientist at the University of Iowa and author of “Riding the Caucus Rollercoaster 2020: The Democrats’ Race to Win the Iowa Caucuses,” said Republicans have been late this election cycle to spending time introducing themselves to Iowans mainly due to Trump. 

“We normally see people coming here fairly early and in fact we would often see people coming and helping out our candidates in the midterm elections,” Hagle said. 

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“Trump is unusual. He’s not an incumbent, but as a former president, who’s running again, he certainly has much higher name recognition and support base than most other candidates would have,” he added. “And so I think it’s kind of delayed some people for getting into the race.”

Haley is the only major candidate to have entered the race to challenge Trump for the GOP nomination. Other candidates like DeSantis are inching closer to a formal presidential announcement and are holding tours and meetings with Republicans across the nation. 

But Trump continues to cast a shadow over the race for the nomination. 

Trump’s support in Iowa eroding but still leading in New Hampshire

A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Trump’s support may be fading.   

Less than half of Iowa Republicans, 47%, said they would “definitely” vote for Trump according to the poll; In June 2021, 69% said they would support him./ That’s a 22 percentage point drop. 

Trump and DeSantis have roughly the same “very favorable” rating at 44% and 42% respectively, which is well above Haley at 16% and Pence at 17%. 

Yet in a survey of New Hampshire voters released Tuesday, 58% said they would support Trump, while only 17% would support DeSantis—a 41 percentage point lead. 

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The survey, conducted, by Emerson College Polling/7 News WHDH, also showed Gov. Chris Sununu polling at 7%. 

Tyler Clark, a New Hampshire Republican consultant, said voters in the Granite State are looking to choose a Republican who can also help local and state GOP candidates win in 2024.

“What we’ve been dealing with since 2016 is we haven’t been able to recapture that initial Trump factor spark where it propelled our candidates in areas that we underperformed in the past,” Clark said. 

Clark said Trump helped the GOP perform well with rural voters, “but we’ve lost suburban educated voters the last few cycles.” 

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DNC shakes up primary calendar

This year, the Democratic National Committee approved a plan that reorders the 2024 primary season.

The plan demotes Iowa and moves South Carolina in first position. Next, Nevada and New Hampshire hold joint primaries. The next two states in the early primary season are Georgia and Michigan. 

Yet, New Hampshire state law requires it to be first in the primary season, which has caused consternation for local Democrats. And Iowa law also requires it to be the first-in-the-nation caucus. 

“Because of the uncertainty, we don’t know what the Democrats are going to do,” said Hagle of the dilemma Iowa Democrats face. 

Clarke, meanwhile, said New Hampshire voters take their first-in-the-nation status seriously.

“Despite what pundits in D.C. say or party bosses, particularly (what) the DNC says about how we’re not representative of the rest of the country, demographically, I think we produce better candidates because we really take it seriously,” Clarke said. 

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